What would have happened if Hitler focused on the Allied Powers , Part Deux

Operation Sealion - The Planned Invasion of Britain

You could say this is a revised version of the What would have happened if Hitler didn't invade the Soviet Union post, but more revised.

Operation Sea lion:

In recent historical speculation, most historians have speculated that , if it hadn't been for Operation Barbarossa (thats the invasion of Soviet Union) Hitler would have been the Fuhrer of the European Continent, his empire would've stretched from the reaches of Prussia to the Atlantic Ocean. In this post, I shall examine and (try to) accurately Speculate (if such a thing exists) what would've happened if Soviet Russia and the Third Reich hadn't collided.

Note- This post will not delve into the Holocaust nor will it involve much of the Russians, it is purely speculative with facts that would back up the claims.

Now, we all know the fact that Nazi Germany had an invasion plan for mainland Britain,Operation Sealion it was called. So here are the plans illustrated in this map.

As illustrated above (to the left) , the plan was to sent the 16th Army corps into the present Dover area, with the 9th Army Corps attacking Brighton, needless to say about the 6th Corps. But what Hitler needed for this invasion, was:

1. Air Superiority- This would give the Germans an edge in their invasion and would prevent the RAF from interfering in their plans.
2. Occupying the Royal Navy - Obviously, the Royal Navy was quite dominant to that of Germany, so hence the initial plan was to attack the Home Fleet with U-Boats and occupy ships positioned in Malta and the Mediterranean as well as the North Sea.

Hitler's conquered Europe. The Full extent of Nazi Germany

Now, assuming this invasion succeeded and the British soon surrender (they would probably HAVE to). Germany turns its focus to North Africa, also assuming that Gen. Montgomery has (I know its far fetced) still been fighting (Just because Britain was invaded, didn't mean they couldn't fight overseas). Germany would now bolster its Afrika Korps and this would eventually wear down the Brits at Egypt. Eventually, after an unknown period of time (I assume a Month), Germany conquered Alexandria and Cairo and are now literally on the Banks of the Suez Canal. Should this Canal fall into Axis hands , it would cut off Whats left of European Britain from the Rest of Her Empire in India and Asia. 

Axis Conquests outside Europe:

During this time, we could expect the island of Malta to finally fall, after a long siege had exhausted the civilian population. Gibralter would, if I am somewhat correct, been attacked and conquered by Nationalist Spain, headed by General Franco.

Now, assuming also that the Suez Canal is lost, the Allied forces in the Middle East now face the thread of a continuing offensive into the Middle East by the Afrika Korps. Chances of Arab Uprisings (no Pun intended ) now are very much high, with Iraq looking unstable. Eventually, the Germans would push the Allied Powers into the Iraqi Pocket. That is, into the province of Basra. It can only hope to escape if it had a Dunkirk style evacuation all the way to the Qatari side of the Gulf.

And during this time, we address another issue. The Neutrality of Turkey, surely by this time It is quite hard for Turkey to remain all that neutral when surrounded by conflict. Assuming that if Turkey joins the Axis, we could be seeing a potential reincranation of the ottoman empire (though highly unlikely) or else if they joined the Allies, they would form a protective bulwark against occupied Greece and Bulgaria, and could possibly stage an offensive into the Balkans!

The Reconquista , what would've happened if Mexico joined the Axis

Now, what about other prospective (or opportunistic) Axis nations ? Well, No doubt Italy would've had been the main powerhouse of the Mediterranean. But what about Mexico ? They would've and could've joined the Axis, so could Argentina. For a fact, Argentina's president at the time had a liking of Hitler and his ideology (it was believed that he was a Fascist himself). So.. you need not require me to paint an image of an Argentinean battle against Allied countries in South American such as Brazil (compared at the time, Brazil had a weaker army).

The outcomes and the Speculations continue to build up. No one really will know what would've happened, unless it did.

For Further Reading:

The following are a recommended books about this topic and of what would happen if Hitler did in fact, conquer the world (not literally!) , if anyone is interested.

In the Presence of Mine Enemies by Harry Turtledove

Fatherland by Robert Harris

Third Reich Victorious: The Alternate History of How the Germans Won the War by Peter G. Tsouras

Disaster at D-Day: The Germans Defeat the Allies, June 1944 by Peter G. Tsouras

The Hitler Options: Alternate Decisions of World War II by Kenneth MacKsey

The Moscow Option: An Alternative Second World War by David Downing

Invasion: The Alternate History of the German Invasion of England, July 1940 by Kenneth MacKsey

Rising Sun Victorious: The Alternate History of How the Japanese Won the Pacific War by Peter G. Tsouras

A Damned Fine War by William Yenne, Bill Yenne

If Britain Had Fallen by Norman Longmate

I've just written this because I was bored, to be honest. 

Although, I welcome all viewers to post their comments and suggestions towards what I should blog about. I very much appreciate it.

Bahrain's battle with Water Shortage- The Untold Story

Bahrain's Freshwater Springs:

The issue of water shortages in Bahrain is something that is rarely known, let alone discussed. Yes, even I had not been unaware of this until a colleague (on Twitter) informed me of it (I thank that Tweeter). Indeed,  the once prestigious, and pride of Bahrain, the spring waters and wells are drying up, the aquifers and a part of Bahrain’s namesake is almost vanishing into the abyss. In this essay, we shall examine and dissect this mysterious topic, about the shortages of water in Bahrain

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Ask anyone on the streets of Bahrain today about any water crisis in the world, they would , most likely, point out to somewhere in Africa or other Less Economically Developed Areas (LEDA). Most ,if not would be surprised that Bahrain had been at this point many times before, yes , Bahrain has experienced water shortages. Lets focus on the freshwater springs, most of Bahrain’s springs originate from the Dammam aquifer (that’s in Eastern Saudi Arabia).

Now evidently, the World Resources institute, had said that “actual renewable water resources per capital had plunged to 154.5 cubic meters”. This problem isn’t limited to just Bahrain, as UNESCO had earlier predicted that up to 13 Arabian countries may experience a critical water shortage in the near future.

Bahrain's Reaction:

Bahrain had formed a ‘Water Resources Council’, which aims to control the water resources left in the Kingdom. In fact, it even unveiled a master plan to constantly improve and protect the water supply over the next few years or so. A major end-product of the funding, given by the Minister of Electricity and Water Authority, are the desalination plants.

Desalination plants remain the major source of water in Bahrain, estimated to produce around 143 million gallons of water per day (Perhaps that’s why not much water is left). However, this project is not immune from environmentalists’ concerns. 

A desalination plant in Bahrain

Some warn that Chlorine (which plays a disinfectant role in the desalination plant) may spew into the nearby sea and possibly kill or damage the ecosystems or living organisms present. Such accidents may prove quite costly considering many fishermen rely on these ecosystems for their fish. Others raise the concern of chlorine from the fish being transmitted (via their flesh) to humans and could potentially cause illnesses.

An article sums up a unique case of one of the Sewage Treatment plants available in Bahrain, albeit the most notable one:

In 1977, the government of Bahrain started treating sewage water to reduce water consumption. The project has been gradually developing, especially after the establishment of the Tubli Water Treatment Station. The project initially faced rejection with the formation of Parliament in 2002 when a majority of conservative lawmakers doubted the purity of the water. The government assured MPs that the water supply of the plant was strictly for domestic gardens and playgrounds. For lack of better options and knowing how badly Bahrain needed the plant, the MPs kept quiet for several years.

The plant became a public issue in 2006, when a health expert warned families about taking their children to gardens and playgrounds that are irrigated with the treated water. The Director of Public Health, Samir Abdullah Khalfan, then declared that the Tubli Station needed urgent maintenance to produced healthy water, as current conditions could cause fatal hepatitis A infection and food poisoning. In reports he drafted for the Public Health Ministry, he also called upon the public to thoroughly wash fruits and vegetables, warning that treated water from the Kingdom’s only sewage water treatment station wasn’t 100 percent clean. Khalfan’s announcements were denounced immediately by the three ministries concerned with the station which asserted that there was no scientific evidence linking treated water with hepatitis A. Their collective statement claims that hepatitis cases had actually declined in the last five years, especially among young children. After months of debate, the station was temporary closed to carry out further tests and was reopened later in the same year.

From Suad al Hamada’s article.

To add to the grim situation, the British risk analysis firm Maplecroft (conveniently) released a report that calculates the Water Stress Index (that is, which country is probable of having a water shortage). And guess what ? Bahrain was ranked #1 on that list (in the Middle East region) with having the least available water per capita (as of 25^th of May , 2011) The report is viewable here.

Maplecroft’s research highlights current and future water availability as one of the foremost global challenges. The company states that the dual drivers of climate change and population growth will combine to squeeze water resources and affect the food security of governments across the world, regardless of how water secure they may be today.

Incidentally, the Discovery Channel had aired a documentary about water shortages in Bahrain  (viewable here )

So, now we’ve found out Bahrain’s vulnerability towards having a water shortage, and hence (not meaning to sound like the Ministry of Electricity and Water but) we have to stop wasting all the water we have. Turn off that tap when you’re brushing your teeth, turn off the water when not in use. Bahrain’s lifeline , as far as water is concerned, remains in the balance. 

Although, back in 2004, it was said that Bahrain wouldn't experience a water shortage until 2012 (spoke too soon ?)

And the likeliness of this happening you may ask ?

Probable, not impossible. Though some experts think (between 2012 to 2050) Bahrain will experience a shortage.

Summer has Arrived in Bahrain

The past couple of weeks (or to be straight-forward, month) have seen the weather drift from the warm and windy weather to HOT and Humid conditions. Its not something new that Bahrainis face, we face it every year, but its always the first month that just makes you go crazy.

While the weather forecast for the next three months would be nothing but heat,humidity and (if we are so unfortunate) Sand storms! Its a good thing we have a secret weapon. Yup, you guessed it, the Air Conditioner! Man's greatest invention! (with regards to the desert!).

But, summer is also the time (believe it or not) where the trees are at their greenest and flowers spurt and open up majestically for all those (hungry) bees and insects. We could be seeing some wonderful flowers this summer too (besides the Petunias!).

Here's a photo of my garden that I took this morning, looks good (greener than usual). I hope this summer would be one for the ages.

Green is always a good sign (unless its in your body part!)

Johnny English Reborn - Trailer released!

The new trailer released! 

I know this is usually against what I normally do but I like to be diverse.

For those who don't know what Johnny English is, it was a spoof spy movie made in 2003, featuring Rowan Atkinson (that very silly guy from Mr.Bean, I reviewed him a while ago). Anyways, he played a spy for MI7 back in the old movie.

I'd recommend you watch it, if you're in the laughing mood or just wish to watch a guy make a mockery of himself.

While normally, I stick to my belief that, all sequels tend to disappoint me. It happened with Night of the Museum , Are We Done Yet? and others.

I just hope, for once, a decent sequel to a hilarious comedy movie could finally come into play.

Corruption, Election, Changes - Scandal Hits FIFA

Corruption Scandal: Eyebrows over alleged buying of the WC

Lets admit it, the past week has been a turbulent one. We have seen Bin Hammam, the Qatari President of the AFC (Asian Football Confederation) and also FIFA-Presidential hopeful , drop out of the race amidst a corruption scandal surrounding his (ironic) anti-corruption campaign.

During this time, several allegations and revelations had emerged (particularly, it had started to kick in, last month). A UK parliamentary inquiry into why England failed to secure the 2018 finals is told by member of parliament Damian Collins that there was evidence from the Sunday Times newspaper that Issa Hayatou of Cameroon and Jacques Anouma of the Ivory Coast were paid by Qatar. An ethics investigation was then opened into confederation presidents Mohamed Bin Hammam  and Jack Warner of CONCACAF concerning a meeting of the Caribbean Football Union.

Hmm.. I wonder who I should vote for..(from Daily Mail)

Prior to the committee hearing, Bin Hammam shocked the Football world by announcing his withdrawal from the race. In his latest fightback , Jack Warner had claimed that , in an email, Qatar's Bin Hammam had bought the 2022 World Cup, accusations which the FIFA general secretary denied.

In the run-up to the vote, the FA and SFA of Britain had called upon FIFA to postpone the election, citing that FIFA's reputation was tarnished and in rocky waters. Both Associations also abstained from the voting. Also worth noting during this time, several sponsors of FIFA, including Coca Cola , Adidas, Emirates and Visa, "expressed" their concern over FIFA's situation.

Blatter; successfully reelected.

To say that Blatter had a little scuffle with the Media at the FIFA summit is an understatement. He had a tantrum! His speech included a lash-out at reporters over their manners! (Sounds like a movie but bear with me).

However, during his speech , he also announced new reforms for FIFA including a new revamp of the voting system for future World Cups. Indeed, the 24-man executive committee would be stripped of their voting powers and "power would be given to all its 203 members".

In the end, Blatter was re-elected.

But now, with the FA's efforts to postpone the election at vain, they look to be on their own. At odds with FIFA and in a state of self-imposed isolation with their fellow members.

Perhaps, better articles would describe it, the Economist published an article (appropriately) titled " The British and Corruption: England ponders its isolation in the football world".

Update: Sepp Blatter himself had said that he would not "seek any revenge against the FA" who had earlier wanted to oust him (via calling on him to quit/resign/postpone the election).
He said:

There's no bad feeling with the associations that didn't vote for me. I'm the president of all the associations and will work with all of them - and with 186 votes I'm proud. Don't worry about the English.

The number one national association in Fifa - the FA founded the game in 1863 - have the right to be called the FA, Football Association. They should be an example, so that was a surprise.

I had heard about it, and Uefa made a special meeting trying to convince them. I thought this problem would be solved so was surprised when they tried to change the agenda of the Congress and not make elections.

The British and The Khalifas - Changes in Bahrain

The Rise of the Al-Khalifa Family:

The Bani Utbah was a tribal confederation that had comprised of leading families in the Qatari and Eastern Arabian region. This included the clans of Al Binali, Al Khalifa (which presently rule Bahrain), Al Sabah (who presently rule Kuwait) and al Jalahima (well known for the pirate, Rahmah ibn Jabir al Jalahima!)

The location of Al Zubarah, now a ghost town

In the year 1782, a war erupted between the Bani Utbah tribal-confederation (based in Zubarah, Qatar) and the Madhukirs (آل مذكور) , who were at the time the rulers of Bahrain, they were also believed to have been Huwala (Again, Sunni Persians in Arabia and vice versa). This war had occurred because the prosperity and emerging position of  a flourishing pearling centre and trading centre at Zubarah, which had brought it to the attention of the two main regional powers at that time, Persia and Oman. Zubarah offered great potential wealth because of the extensive pearls found in its waters. At the time, it was believed there was a shortage of pearls (you’d think after 3 millenniums, it would run out!).

 An interesting thing is that the Bani Utbah tribe were believed to have been (or related)called the Bin Ali tribe (آل بن علي) of Bahrain, which already showed the influence they had in the region. The governor of Bahrain at the time, Nasr Al-Madhkur, led an army to Zubarah to fend off the invading tribe, which proved in vain as his army had collapsed (some suggest desertion) and a victory ensued for the Bani Utbah tribe

. By 1783, the Islands of Bahrain were lost to the Bani Utbah tribe for good, and a mass migration towards the island was reported , this was believed to have caused the extravagant growth of Date-Palm farms throughout the island.

A portrait of Ahmed the Conqueror

The clan that was placed in charge of Bahrain was, as you might guess, the Al Khalifa family. In fact, the commander of the Bani Utbah invasion was Ahmed ibn Mohammed al Khalifa, now commonly referred to as Ahmed al Fateh (Ahmed the Conqueror). The main mosque of Bahrain was built in his honour. He was also the first ruler of the Khalifa Dynasty.

 It is said that the Al Khalifa clan were supported by a naval fleet from Kuwait and several Bedouin clans based in Zubara in its invasion of Bahrain. These clans included Al Mannai, Al Jalahima, Al Bin Ali, Al Bu Romaih, Al Hajri, Al Muhannadi, Al Nuaim, Al Buainain, Al Bukuwarah and Al Thawawida. The Khalifas were thought to have originally been based in Jaww  (a village on the east coast of Bahrain) along with the Al Bu Romaih tribe. Later, they had moved to Riffa, the de facto power-house of Bahrain.

For a brief period of two years, 1800-1802, Oman had invaded Bahrain for unclear reasons, where it was believed that a 12 year old child was installed as the ruler of the land, then based in Arad Fort.

British De Facto Control:

The Khalifa Dynasty’s control over Bahrain was reinforced when, in 1820, it signed a treaty  with Britain where, according to Historians, the British recognized the Khalifas as the legitimate Rulers of Bahrain. The reason why Bahrain sought British recognition was because it was the regional powerhouse in the region , at the time. This treaty, alongside with dozen others that was signed in 1861, was called the Perpetual Truce of Peace and Friendship treaty. 

According to its terms, the United Kingdom would provide protection from naval assault and assistance for land assaults in return for pledges from Bahrain to only dispose of land to the United Kingdom (if to anyone) and not to enter relationships with other foreign governments without British consent. The treaty was modified in 1892 and 1951. 

Between the years 1869 to 1872, Ottoman influence in the region was apparent, Ottoman naval ships had periodically appeared by the coasts , it was unclear if any hostilities had occurred (but due to the defense pack with Britain, I doubt it). Perhaps the most important part of that treaty was that he British promised to support the rule of the Al Khalifa in Bahrain, securing its unstable position as rulers of the country. 

Wikipedia sums it nicely

- According to School of Oriental and African Studies academic, Nelida Fuccaro, this treaty relationship with Britain was one aspect of an evolving polity: From this perspective state building under the Al Khalifa shayks should not be considered exclusively as the result of Britain's informal empire in the Persian Gulf. In fact, it was a long process of strategic negotiation with different sections of the local population in order to establish a pre-eminence of their particularly artistic Sunni/Bedouin tradition of family rule.

The Cosmopolitan Society of Bahrain:

Generally speaking ,the period after 1850 was a peaceful and prosperous one. In this time, Bahrain had somewhat lowered its dependency on Pearls and had invested again into becoming a trading hub (as it once was , in ages past). This was achieved when it had overtaken Basra, Kuwait and Muscat as the trading centre of the Gulf.

At around the same time, Bahrain was believed to have undergone a socio-economic revamp. The tribal system was being called for abandonment and the adoption of a Modern state was called for. Of course, this booming period led to mass immigration to Bahrain from Persian , Arab and Indian merchants . 

According to one contemporary account; 

 Mixed with the indigenous population [of Manamah] are numerous strangers and settlers, some of whom have been established here for many generations back, attracted from other lands by the profits of either commerce or the pearl fishery, and still retaining more or less the physiognomy and garb of their native countries. Thus the gray-coloured dress of the southern Persian, the saffron-stained vest of Oman, the white robe of Nejed, and the striped gown of Bagdad, are often to be seen mingling with the light garments of Bahreyn, its blue and red turban, its white silk-fringed cloth worn Banian fashion round the waist, and its frock-like overall; while a small but unmistakable colony of Indians, merchants by profession, and mainly from Guzerat, Cutch, and their vicinity, keep up here all their peculiarities of costume and manner, and live among the motley crowd, ‘among them, but not of them’.

 From: WG Palgrave, Narrative of a Year's Journey through Central and Eastern Arabia (1862-3)

Bahrain was described as a cosmopolitan society at the time, in Palgrave’s book, he describes the people as having an open – even urbane – outlook: "Of religious controversy I have never heard one word. In short, instead of Zelators and fanatics, camel-drivers and Bedouins, we have at Bahrain [Manama] something like ‘men of the world, who know the world like men’ a great relief to the mind; certainly it was so to mine”.

The Ahmed al Fateh Mosque, built in the capital Manama

The trading families of this period could even be equivalent to the Borgias and Medicis of Italy, or even greater.

And this wealth  gave them extensive power, and among the most prominent were the Persian Al Safar family, who held the position of Native Agents of Britain in 19th Century.

The Al Safar enjoyed an 'exceptionally close' relationship with the Al Khalifa clan from 1869.

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Once again, all comments are welcome and appreciate you reading this.

The Omani Invasion of Bahrain and the "Century of Madness"

The Omani Invasion:

During the beginning of the 18th Century, an Afghan uprising (in Afghanistan) and subsequent invasion of Persia by the Afghans caused regional instability which resulted in the Persians pulling out their garrisons from Bahrain. Taking advantage of the confusion, the Sultanate of Oman (in 1717), then a regional power in the Gulf, invaded the island thus lifting 115 years of Safavid control of the island.

The Bahraini cleric, Shaikh Yousif al Bahrani (the cleric I previously mentioned) provided a detailed account of this invasion in his autobiography and book:

The earth shook and everything came to a standstill while preparations were made to do battle with these vile men [the Khārijite Omani invasion force]. The first year they came to seize it they returned disappointed, for they were unable to do so. Nor were they able to succeed the second time a year later, despite the help they received from all of the Bedouin and outlaws. The third time, however, they were able to surround Bahrain by controlling the sea, for Bahrain is an island. In this way they eventually weakened its inhabitants and then took it by force. It was a horrific battle and a terrible catastrophe, for all the killing, plunder, pillage, and bloodshed that took place.

After the Khārijites had conquered it and granted the inhabitants safe passage, the people—especially the notables—fled to al-Qaṭīf and other regions. Among them was my father—God have mercy upon him—accompanied by his dependents [i.e., wives] and children, who traveled with them to al-Qaṭīf. But he left me in Bahrain in the house we owned in al-Shākhūra because some chests filled with bundles of our possessions, including books, gold coins, and clothes, were hidden there. He had taken a large portion of our possessions up to the fortress in which everyone had planned to [take refuge] when we were besieged, but he had left some behind in the house, stored in hiding places. Everything in the fortress was lost after the Khārijites took it by force, and we all left the fortress with nothing but the clothes on our backs. So when my father left for al-Qaṭīf, I remained in Bahrain; he had ordered me to gather whatever books remained in the fortress and save them from the hands of the Khārijites. I did manage to save a number of books that I found there along with some that were left in the house, which I sent to him a few at a time. These years passed in an utter lack of prosperity.I then traveled to al-Qaṭīf to visit my father and stayed there two or three months, but my father grew fed up with sitting in al-Qaṭīf because of the large number of dependents he had with him, the miserable conditions, and his lack of money, so he grew determined to return to Bahrain even though it was in the hands of the Khārijites. Fate, however, intervened between him and his plans, for the Persian army, along with a large number of Bedouins, arrived at that time to liberate Bahrain from the hands of the Khārijites. We followed the events closely and waited to see the outcome of these disasters; eventually the wheel of fortune turned against the Persians, they were all killed, and Bahrain was burned. Our house in the village [of al-Shākhūra] was among those burned.During this time, I was traveling back and forth to Bahrain in order to take care of the date palms we owned there and gather the harvest, then returning to al-Qaṭīf to study. [This continued] until Bahrain was taken from the hands of the Khārijites by treaty, after a great sum had been paid to their commander, because of the Persian king's weakness and impotence, and his empire's decline through bad administration. 

Political Limbo in Bahrain:

No clear historical evidence suggests that the Omanis had stayed for a significant period of time aside from the data above. It is widely believed that Bahrain had been pillaged by the Omanis simply for wealth. However, when the Omanis had left, political instability in the island had led to many invasions by Huwala Bedouins. These were Sunni Arabs who had migrated to Persia in the early centuries, it also applies vice versa( Sunni Persians settling in Arabia). Al Bahrani says that these tribes had 'ruined' Bahrain.

A map (in Arabic) showing the extent of the Omani Empire

Almost constant warfare between various Sunni bedouin tribes, the Kharajite Omanis and then the Persians under Nadir Shah (who had sought to re-establish Persian dominance in the island) and Karim Khan Zand laid waste to much of Bahrain, while the high taxes imposed by the Omanis drove out both the ulema,pearl merchants and the pearl divers .

In 1736, Bahrain had been recaptured by Persia , along with the aid of the British and the Dutch. But afterwards, it was ruled by the Arabs of Abu Shahr of the Bushire-based Al Madhkur family but it was indirectly a vassal state to (then De Facto Shah) Karim Khan of the Safavids.

The years of almost constant warfare and instability in the period led to a demographic collapse - German geographer and Arabist Carsten Niebuhr found in 1763 that Bahrain's 360 towns and villages had, through warfare and economic distress, been reduced to only 60.The influence of Iran was further undermined at the end of the 18th century when the ideological power struggle between the Akhbari-Usuli strands culminated in victory for the Akhbaris in Bahrain (Bet you thought they all died out :P )